What the Arrest of the Freital Group Tells Us

Burnt out 'refugee' center in Bautzen, Saxony, Germany

Last night German prosecutors arrested five people suspected of committing arson on empty to-be 'refugee' shelters. These poor kids were charged with "right wing terrorism" and the 'German' 'Government' no doubt plans to throw the book at them. 

The five "terrorists" are believed to be founders of and members of the 'Freital Group,' a "terror" group that has been attacking empty "refugee" camps with explosive devices and setting them on fire. 

The first question I have is, why on earth have these people even formed a group? When you're doing covert warfare against the government (or, in this case, invaders protected by the government), rule one is to NEVER form groups. Doing so goes right into the 60-year old playbook of European intelligence agencies. 

Time and time again, whether its with 'stay home armies' uncovered in "Operation Gladio" in Europe or later with "White Supremacist" groups in the US, intelligence agencies in the West have had a penchant for the old adage: "Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer." 

Without getting into things like Operation Gladio, Elohim City or the various other events, governments in the West absolutely love infiltrating or even forming radical groups. They do so not only to keep an eye on these people, but also to take over these groups with plants so the groups themselves can be co-opted and the energy and work of its members misdirected. Some even say governments infiltrate and form these groups to facilitate terror attacks which help "manage" public opinion, take away inconvenient rights to privacy and start convenient wars when need be. 

Those are all interesting stories, but I won't get into them, because that's not what this entry is about. But I will say this: The occurrence of these things all points to one recommended course of action for those operating underground: Do NOT join underground action groups unless you know everyone in that group. The rule of thumb is, the larger the group, the more likely you will be compromised. 

There's an old saying from the 90's militia groups in the US: When three people get together to conspire against the government, two of them are undercover.

The Freital boys would have been smart to heed that advice. 

Update: Violence all over Greece

Over the last few days violence has broken out on Chios island and in Eidomeni, the border village between Greece and Macedonia. A few days ago this blog talked about 'protests' and violence breaking out between Afghan and Syrian 'migrant's on Chios island. That has since spilled over into the general city, as 'migrant's broke out of their overcrowded camp and laid siege to the port. Within a day locals became fed up and began attacking the 'migrants' and their NGO Euro-volunteer enablers. 

Above is a typically biased report from one of the 'open borders' whiners. Note that the 'port occupation got evacuated' because the 'refugees' blocked it in the first place. It's rumored that Golden Dawn was involved in beating up "solidarity people" and Muslim 'refugees.' 

Just yesterday the siege on the port was lifted by police and the 'migrants' were thrown into a makeshift camp. Situation there is not good.

Golden Dawn and angry locals surrounded the Muslim 'refugees' and harassed them last night. Have a look at this video. 

In Eidomeni, "hundreds" of 'refugees' tried to tear down a fence between Greece and Macedonia. Macedonian police responded by exploding tear gas and shooting rubber bullets at the violent illegals, eventually pushing them back. From the videos I've seen, the Muslims put their children on the front fence. Some of the tear gas spread into the camp, hitting women and children. Oops. 

Many of the illegals were heard chanting "Allahu Akbar." Ultimately, none of the illegals succeeded. 

UPDATE: More riots, Greece could get STUCK with the migrants

The 'managers' of Europe's borders are a bunch of childless cat-lady Gutenmenschen.

With the first cargo of illegals being sent back to Turkey from Greece, many of the 50,000 Muslim Migrants stuck in Greece are now applying for asylum in that country. According to one report, the country's national asylum service is now 'overwhelmed.' There is currently a backlog of some 4,000 claims, with a potential for another 45,000 or so over the next couple weeks! 

Reports on the ground are that 'most' of the smugglers have left the Turkish coast, and arrivals are down to 'fewer than 100 per day.' Predictably, so-called 'human rights' groups are fighting the returns. 

It's unknown whether the tactic of applying for asylum will work. My guess is that most of the people applying for asylum are not Syrians (as Syrians are thus far protected from returns and are favored in 'resettlement.'). Therefore, a lot of the people applying for asylum will likely be rejected. However, it will bide these people a lot more time, perhaps years, while their claims are processed.

Netherlands says "Hell No." 

The Dutch come through again. A few weeks ago the Dutch public demanded a referendum on a political and trade agreement with Ukraine. The "no" camp won with over 60% of the vote. The referendum was "advisory" in nature, as this is a multinational deal, but even the Socialist PM Mark Rutte had to admit defeat.

"It is clear the ratification cannot just proceed as if nothing has happened," Rutte whined.

This deal will help to block the EU's expansion. It's also a victory for Russia and a good indicator of what is going to come in the UK vote on June 23rd. Will continue to update.

Afghans rioting in Greece

It's becoming increasingly clear to the 13,000 Afghans stuck in Greece that they aren't going to be considered refugees and they aren't going to be legally resettled in Europe. As you might guess, these gracious and rule-minded people are responding in a rather Afghan way. Fights between Afghans and Syrians are erupting all over the place.

At Piraeus just a few days ago, around 300 'young men' 'clashed' in a three-hour long brawl. Eight people were sent to the hospital.

In Vial, a camp on a hilltop opened by the government, the situation blew up last week. Rumors that non-Syrians would be deported led the Afghans to pick a fight with Syrians, men of both sides jumped in and a "wave of violence" engulfed the camp. Reportedly, men threw heavy stones at each other. Some of them ransacked a "Doctors of the World" medical clinic (lol).

Here's a video of these people 'protesting' their conditions just a week ago.

About 1,900 "Migrants" arriving in Italy per day

The 'Balkan Route' is pretty much over, thank god. Boats are now actually sending back migrants from Greece to Turkey. However, few have noticed that things are getting worse and worse in Italy. Through March 22, Italy has received 160,547 "migrants." That's approximately 1,900 per day. Those numbers are about 1/5th of the peak numbers we saw in the Balkans, but this is still very significant, and Italy will creak under these circumstances. 

To get an idea of what's going to happen, all last year Italy received only 150,000 people, and was able to deport only 15,000 of them. Of those 150,000 people, only 500 have been "resettled" by the EU 'qualified majority' agreement reached last September. The remainder of them are kept in close camps where they cannot leave.

"So how many tend of thousands of people can you keep, year after year? Without returns, either you organize real prisons, or (...) the system will collapse," said interior minister Angelino Alfano.

Ted Cruz's Electability is Going Away

Over the last few weeks Ted Cruz's prospects in a general election have dropped substantially. Yesterday at a town hall discussion in Milwaukee, the favorite candidate of 'true blue' conservatives effectively said he would not support Donald Trump if Trump were the nominee. In doing so, Ted Cruz appears to be the next hope of the 'Never Trump' movement among movement Conservatives, and I believe he is now playing to their tune, and bringing the hardcore Conservatives into an alliance with the 'establishment' Neocon Republicans. 

For a man whose political career is all about calculations, Ted Cruz just made a grave error, even if his supporters don't immediately notice. Cruz started this election by playing nice with Donald Trump, and it appeared that an alliance between 'true Conservatives' and 'Trump populists' was at hand. Really, those two groups together make up about 80% of today's Republican electorate. However, earlier this year Cruz changed course, and he is now doing everything he can to sabotage Donald Trump, including delegate chicanery in states such as Louisiana. In doing so, Cruz has virtually forfeited any support from Trump voters in the general election, myself included. 

If Trump supporters do not come out to vote for Cruz in 2016, then Cruz risks being another Mitt Romney. This is a huge 'miscalculation' on Cruz's part, and it's not the first. In trying to brand Trump as "not a true Conservative," Cruz has also tacked way too far to the right in the last month, and it's already way too late to walk that back.

For example, in Utah Cruz followed around Mormon convert and popular conservative talkshow host Glenn Beck. Beck pleaded to Mormons to vote for Cruz in the Utah primary, stoking century-old sectarian discord  by saying that southern Evangelicals "haven't been listening to their god." Beck also said that Cruz was the fulfillment of the Mormon "White Horse Prophecy."

That may play out well in Utah, but it will not do so in a general election. Cruz also made appearances with pastor Kevin Swanson, aka the "Kill the Gays Preacher." Describing this in words won't do justice to the meeting. Just watch for yourself:

I get wanting to shore up the base, believe me. I don't have a problem with Republicans aligning with far-right forces, but the "Kill the Gays" preacher is way too far out and has no place in the party. The media is largely ignoring these things right now because it favors Cruz in a last-ditch effort to stop Trump, but on the off chance that Cruz actually gets the nomination, you can bet the media is going to be all over this, as well as Cruz's multiple affairs that he's been trying to cover up. 

Ted Cruz is a disaster, he has gravely miscalculated. Trump supporters are some of the most committed voters out there. By playing nice with Trump and not aligning with the 'establishment' Republicans, Cruz could have counted those Trump supporters in a general election even with the affairs coming to light. Instead, Cruz has hitched his wagon to the establishment and has tacked way too far to the right to be viable in a general election. The latest polling data shows that Cruz has gone from a slight lead over Hillary Clinton to now being well behind. Have a look.

The sharp drop in support over the last couple weeks says it all. Cruz has alienated independents and moderates with his far right religious kookery, and has made it clear in no uncertain terms that he does not want the Trump Populists' support. This is the result above, and I expect more of it.

If you like Ted Cruz, it had better be for a reason other than electability. 

The EU's "Deal" with Turkey: All Talk, no Action

Eidomeni, Greece

The buzz about a deal between Turkey and the EU to "tackle the migrant crisis" is unwarranted. The EU and Turkey are apparently "close to reaching a deal," but when I look at the deal, I see a lot of similarities between that deal and the defunct EU 'resettlement plan' agreed to in September of 2015.

A little background on the latter: In September of last year the EU agreed to a 'migrant quota' whereby some 160,000 "migrants" trapped in Greece, Italy and Spain would be resettled to countries throughout the Eurozone. Thus far, not even 1,000 of those "migrants" have been settled because the countries which 'agreed' to the deal have dragged their feet on the matter.

Fast forward to now. The EU is planning on deporting an unspecified number of trapped and rejected asylum seekers back to Turkey. In exchange, Europe will resettle, within the EU, a number of asylum seekers camped in Turkey. It is assumed this will be a 1-for-1 deal, and I've heard it will involve around 70,000 people, all of whom would be rejected asylum seekers from EU countries. In addition, Turkey will get 'accelerated talks' for visa-free travel within the EU.

But here's the problem: How are the 'migrants' from Turkey going to be resettled? Which European countries are going to take them? Judging by the previous 'resettlement agreement,' it appears that NONE of them will want to take the migrants. For countries like France, Belgium, Finland, Poland, and the Czechs, who have taken relatively few 'migrants,' it's much easier to not take any of them. In effect, that's what those countries HAVE been doing thus far with the previous agreement. Is there any indication they will behave differently this time? I don't think so.

'Migrant' arrivals in Greece have dropped dramatically in March.

That leaves Germany, Austria and Sweden to directly take most of the 'resettled' migrants in exchange for their rejected ones. That may end up being what happens, but that isn't going to be a "European solution," but rather a 'solution' where the most idiotic liberal countries once again do all the heavy lifting.

Also, the 45,000 'migrants' trapped in Greece are 'expected' to be resettled in Greece, as per the September 2015 agreement.

As for Turkey joining the EU, Cyprus already vowed to veto any efforts. France has been the country traditionally blocking any movement on liberalization with Turkey, and I fully expect France to object to visa-free travel for Turkish citizens. That in and of itself could end this entire deal.

In summary, there's a very good chance the Turkey-EU deal does not even go through. If it does go through, there's an even greater chance that EU nations will drag their feet. If anything meaningful does come of this deal, it will almost certainly involve a swap of asylum seekers to and from Germany, Austria and Sweden only.

More important is the fate of the 40,000 or so 'migrants' stuck in Greece. They are NOT expected to be returned to Turkey. If these 'migrants' end up being resettled, then we should expect more of them to show up and expect the same thing, and this drop in 'migrant' arrivals will only be temporary.

UPDATE: Car Bomb in Berlin from "Turkish Gangs." "Migrants" finally breach Macedonia border, get roughed up and sent back!

Top of the morning, Germany!

A car bomb exploded on Bismarckstrasse this morning in Berlin, giving Germans a pleasant wake-up call. Residents were told to close windows and stay indoors. A 43-year old man crawled out from the car and died on the pavement. The man was known to police for "drugs and violent offenses," according to BILD newspaper. 

The car was registered to a woman with a "Turkish-sounding" name. 

Police are saying this was not 'terrorism,' but is instead gang-related crime. 

Haven't these guys ever played Oregon Trail...?

About 1,500 "migrants" got frustrated with the Macedonian border situation and decided ford a nearby river. Where they got the equipment to do this is anyone's guess, although I suspect they got it from NGOs. 

So far, Macedonian police detained 700 of these illegal "migrants," and also detained 50 slimy journalists and 'volunteers' in a nice cold jail cell. Then fined and deported the lot of them. It's unknown where the other 800 are, although I suspect they will have even more difficulty trying to get into Serbia and Slovenia. It won't be any easier for them, and I doubt the local population will be in much of a mood to help these people. 

Meanwhile, the situation is deteriorating at Idomeni, where some 13,000 people are camped and waterlogged in torrential rain. Idomeni is now twice the size of "The Jungle" in Calais. More updates to come. 

Merkel In Trouble after "Election Setback"

CDU Headquarters: "We're gonna have a problem here."

Yesterday, on 'Super Sunday,' Germans in the southern Rhineland state of Rheinland-Pfalz, the Black Forest state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, and the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, went to the ballot box in regional elections. Most polls showed that right-wing, anti-migrant party Alternative Fuer Deutschland would at the very least pass the 7.5% threshold to hold seats in each of those three regional governments. Everyone expected AfD to get a much higher share of votes.

Merkel's party, the Christian Democratic Union, was hoping to win back the governments of Rheinland-Pfalz and Baden-Wuerttemberg, the former being run by an SPD-Green coalition, and the latter being run by a Green-SPD coalition. 

However, AfD's surge led to a defeat for the CDU in both Rheinland-Pfalz and Baden-Wuerttemberg. Have a look at the results.

Look specifically at B-W and R-P. Things didn't go too well for the CDU. In B-W, the CDU got a multi-decade low of 27.5% of the electorate. The Greens will most likely keep their colaition government there. It doesn't look much better in R-P, where SPD came out on top, although the coalition formed there remains uncertain. In either case, the CDU isn't capturing those two states, and this is a direct result of Merkel's stubborn "refugees welcome" stance.

Today Merkel came out and said the election results will not change her policy. That's not a big surprise, but think about this: There's only one reason the CDU lost in B-W and R-P; and that is Merkel's refugee policy. In fact, the CDU candidates in both of those provinces realized this, and openly called for an 'upper limit' on asylum seekers, in order to give themselves cover for the election. Voters weren't fooled, and as a result those two lost BECAUSE of Angela Merkel.

This makes Merkel a liability for the CDU, and that is a very good way for her to get removed from power. Merkel acts like she's in a good position, but the fact is that she is rather isolated, and there will be serious fallout from this disastrous election. Stay tuned, I will continue providing updates and analysis. 

Why Conservatives Lose, and Liberals Win

Consider the following scenario: A dozen 'Cultural Marxist' groups collude to stop the rally of a right-wing populist candidate by violently storming the arena and breaking up the event. They succeed. Not only do they succeed, but they also block peaceful supporters, start fist fights and assault police officers.

Now consider this: Presidential candidate #2 steps in and blames the disturbance not on the Marxists who colluded or on the criminals themselves, but on the candidate who used 'provocative language' and 'created an environment' where people do criminal acts. Candidate #2 does not hold the actual criminals responsible for their actions.

Candidate #2 sounds like a real liberal, doesn't he? What with making excuses, blaming the 'environment' and societal factors. That candidate must be a Democrat.

Well, it's not. Candidate #2, in fact, bills himself as the "True Conservative." Candidate #2 is Ted Cruz, and this illustrates exactly why Liberals win and Conservatives lose.

When the liberal establishment attacks Donald Trump, many Republican candidates join in with the liberal establishment, and often pile on by using the exact same language and talking points as the liberal media does. Yet, on the off instance that the media actually digs into Hillary's unethical (and possibly illegal) behavior, the other Democratic candidates close ranks to protect their own.

That's why Liberals win and Conservatives lose.

The Republican establishment is more than happy to comb through Donald Trump's past and bring up any tiny thing. They are more than eager to join the media in piling on Trump for 'not denouncing' a former Klansman whose endorsement he was not familiar with. Center-left Democrats, however, frequently associate with Marxists, radical Feminists and flat-out Communists in order to achieve their ends. They NEVER worry about "guilt by association," and they never "punch to the left."

That's why they win. And that's also why America has continually slid to the left over the last few decades. Conservatives would be wise to learn that lesson, and learn it soon.

UPDATE: Balkan Route is SHUT, no indication of it ever opening again

Macedonia has completely restored its immigration controls to normal, meaning that no one may pass through Macedonia without proper travel documents. About a month ago, Macedonia restricted travel to "refugees" from Iraq and Syria. Now things are shut off even to them. This shut-off is official, and this time it is NOT being described as temporary. In other words, there's no indication that Macedonia will be opening its borders again.

Meanwhile, "migrants" continue arriving in Greece at varying daily rates. Some days it's a few hundred, some days its over a thousand. Since none of them are travelling through Macedonia, virtually all of them are getting piled up in Greece. Latest reports confirm that there are now some 36,000 "migrants" stranded in Greece.

EU President Donald Tusk called this, "the end of irregular migration to Europe."

Whatever that might mean.

In the meantime, Merkel and 'Europe' are negotiating with Turkey to make some kind of a settlement plan, which includes liberalizing visas for Turks to travel (and settle) in the EU. That, of course, would be an epic disaster.

'Migrants' have two other choices from Greece: Bulgaria and Albania. I doubt 'migrants' will go through Bulgaria, as police and border officials there have repeatedly gone to extreme circumstances to keep illegals out. Stay tuned, will continue to provide updates.

Germany: AfD blows out results in municipal elections!

All that matters: 'More security for our women and daughters.' 

Germany's municipal elections typically give a very good idea of what will happen in the regional election happening just a week later. Yesterday, Germany's municipal elections saw Merkel's CDU drop from 33% to 28%. AfD surged from nothing to 13%. The Green Party got destroyed, going from 18% to 11.5%. Apparently nobody wants to vote for the loony Greens given their continued enthusiasm for multiculturalism and "refugees welcome."

AfD got an amazing 19% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt in the east, 13% in the Black Forest state of Baden-Wuerttemberg and 9% in the typically liberal Rheinland-Palatinate. To get parliamentary representation, all they need is 5% in the elections one week ahead.

AfD performed better than it was polled. For example, polls in Frankfurt (Rheinland-Palatinate) had AfD getting only 6% of the vote, but during the election AfD scored 10%.

This is a good sign for the regional elections next week. Chances are, AfD will have seats in every regional government. 

Otto von Bismarck and the only way to beat Donald Trump

"Trump is Hitler! Trump is Hitler! Blah blah blah!"

Comparing so-and-so to Hitler has been part of American political discourse for decades: Slobodan Milosevic, Saddam Hussein, George W Bush, Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin, Osama bin Laden, and now Donald Trump. On and on and on and ad nauseum. Everything is Literally Hitler, and the comparison is never good.

I'd like to make a better comparison regarding events of these days to different German leader; Otto von Bismarck. The very first chancellor of the German Empire. Von Bismarck entered office as Germany was rapidly industrializing and joining the modern world at a breathtaking speed. The aristocratic Prussian did everything he could to keep the Junker class on top and Socialist workers locked out of power. Bismarck forbade the circulation of socialist literature. He gave police the power to stop, search and arrest socialist party members at will. And despite that, the Socialist movement steadily gained supporters because Socialists represented the interests of a growing number of people frustrated by the massive social changes of the day.

Sound familiar? It should.

If Bismarck were like Mitt Romney, he'd have dug in his heels and refuse to give up power, and refuse to even throw a few bread crumbs to the growing movement of frustrated people. He'd have used all the Kaiser's horses and all the Kaiser's men to suppress those upstart workers. And Germany would have fallen into a revolution much like France had some eighty years previously.

But Bismarck was no Mitt Romney. He was ten times the leader Romney, Rubio and all the other establishment fools are. Bismarck came to understand that in the rapidly-industrializing world the Junkers could not hold onto power AND keep their absolute privilege. One of the two had to give, and it was obvious which one.

In 1880 Bismarck relented, and created the world's first modern welfare state. He worked with industry, but also looked to stimulate growth by giving workers greater security by enacting labor laws and implementing a social safety net, something unheard of in the rest of the industrializing world. 

Bismark's plan worked very well. Through the late 1800s and beyond, violent class warfare exploded across France and the United States. The abysmal working conditions in Britain were enshrined by Charles Dickens' Oliver Twist. For the masses, industrialization represented a new kind of misery and exploitation. This led to violent social upheaval.

But not in Germany. The Junker class remained firmly in power, and did so because instead of oppressing the growing Socialist movements, they simply took away the Socialists' legitimate reasons to be angry. Bismarck called this, "stealing their thunder." 

There's a lesson in this for the Republican establishment of today. The Republican base is angry. They've been ignored, exploited, taken for granted and even derided by the Republican establishment and the pathetic Pundit class in their employ. Even today I don't think these people realize just how much they are hated, and looking at the latest primary results, it couldn't be more clear that they are well outnumbered by the 'insurgent' forces in their party.

If the Republican establishment does not want to share power, then they would be wise to 'steal Trump's thunder,' and do so very soon. What would that look like? Trump's appeal comes from two places: Immigration and trade.

First and foremost, the establishment will have to get behind building a wall by Mexico, period. This is what the clear majority of Republican voters want. Most Americans as a whole are sick and tired of illegal immigration, so this will not be a difficult position to take. Implement eVerify, which will make it very difficult for illegal immigrants to find work. Cut welfare aid for illegal immigrants and bring net migration down to 200,000 per year or so. 

With trade, the Republicans will have to put a 'dumping penalty' in China, as well as a reciprocal tariff on imports. China already has multiple tariffs on US goods. The least America can do is reciprocate. It's probably also time to seriously review NAFTA, as Mexico is clearly not holding up its end of the bargain with enforcement of labor and environmental regulation, and it has lead to a nightmarish 'race to the bottom' which has hurt both countries. It's time to look seriously at that.

While the Republican donors and establishment may really not like these positions, not taking them will ultimately result in control of their party being wrestled from them. Perhaps violently. 

Achtung!

Autopsy of Trump's victory in Kentucky

Here are observations from Trump's solid victory in Kentucky: 

 1) if you layover a map of Virginia, Trump takes a wide swath of the most 'Southern' counties in Kentucky.

2) Trump dominates in Coal Country. No surprise there.
3) Cruz does well in the more Bible-Belty west near southern Illinois.
4) Cruz takes Lexington and suburban Cincinnati.
5) Surprisingly, Trump wins in Louisville and is strong in many counties along the Ohio river. 
6) Trump does very well in rural areas.

In Ohio, Trump and Kasich will fight for Toledo to Cleveland. Trump will really pick up votes around Youngstown and Akron in the east. The 'rust belt.' Hardly anyone there will vote for Cruz. Trump will rule rural Ohio.

Cruz will do well in Columbus, maybe Cincinnati but that's about it. This thing is going to get a lot harder for Ted Cruz. 

Angry mobs are following Angela Merkel everywhere.

UPDATE: "Migrants" smash open Macedonia Border and get tear-gassed. Belgium shuts border to France. 'Jungle' evictions continue.

Yesterday the "Migrants" used an improvised battering ram to smash down Macedonia's border railway gate. As you can see in the video, they succeeded in their lawless action, but were soon dispersed by teargas. As I wrote in a recent article, Greece now has some 20,000+ stranded migrants who are waiting to travel into Macedonia and beyond. Most of them will not legally be able to.

As expected, civil groups in Germany and the rest of Europe are protesting, but Angela Merkel and the rest of the German government are actually pretty quiet about this latest incident. It's only because of Macedonia's and Austria's effort that "migrant" traffic into German has hit all-time lows, with Germany at times now receiving only a hundred "migrants" per day.

Belgium is taking full advantage of the scrapping of Schengen. With the piecemeal dispersion of "The Jungle," hundreds of "migrants" have been streaming into an already unstable Belgium. Belgian police have responded by shutting their western borders with France, and have now shoved another 600 illegal "migrants" back into France. Expect the Belgian border to tighten even further, as most of the Paris terrorists came from Belgium, and various neighborhoods in Brussels have already become safehavens for terrorists. 

"You want me to kill myself?"

The second round of demolitions in "The Jungle" has finally begun. French authorities are steadily moving 'Jungle' inhabitants from the shanties over to container homes just offsite and away from the highway. That doesn't mean The Jungle is going away. The French are just trying to limit it's population to 2,000. Independent estimates put The Jungle's population at almost 5,500. 

It's unclear what the evicted "migrants" will do. I don't think many will end up claiming asylum in France. If history is any guide, they may just disappear into various places in Europe. Stay tuned, will provide further updates when the situation changes. 

UPDATE: Macedonia re-opens border. But NOT to Afghans

Europe's borders are closing in piecemeal. Macedonia has reopened its border, but only to Iraqi and Syrian "migrants." That means no more Afghans. The rest of Europe will certainly be happy to not be receiving any more Afghans, as Afghans have proven to be much more prone to violent crime and brawls than most other refugees. This restriction is in addition to forbidding 'migrants' from all other countries as well, including North Africa, Eritrea, Somalia, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Macedonia said it would allow up to 350 "migrants" to pass through its borders every day. That's not very much. Meanwhile, it's estimated that about 20,000 "migrants" are now stranded in Greece. 

This chart, made by Greek 'open borders' groups, gives an idea of how many migrants are still in Greece. It's safe to assume that most of these people are no longer allowed to pass through the Balkan Route. Where they will go, I have no idea yet. Stay tuned, will update. 

Last Night's Horrible Republican Debate

"Hi I'm the new face of your party!"

Now that the Republican field is down to five candidates, I was hoping these debates would be more about substance and less about sound bytes. Instead, we got probably the worst presidential debate I think I've ever seen, filled with personal attacks, endless back-and-fourths, and the drudging up of old stuff nobody cares about.

Yeah, the last debate in South Carolina was filled with the same back-and-fourths, but at least it was about policy and the something meaningful; the Iraq War. The Houston debate, however, represents a new low in sleeze and juvinility in the Republican Party.

Trump was the big target, unsurprisingly. Does anybody really care about Trump hiring Polish workers from a contractor 35 years ago? What was Rubio trying to prove with that? Those workers were contract construction workers hired to demolish an old building in Manhattan, they weren't hired directly by Trump. It's unclear exactly how much Trump settled for on that. They sued for a million, but we don't know how much it settled for. Under oath, Trump said he didn't know the Polish workers were illegal and blamed the contractors. Is this shit really worth five minutes of precious airtime at a presidential debate?

Trump University, does anyone really care about that either? "Trump University" was really a series of self-help ballroom workshops that were common in the early 90s. Misunderstandings about it being a real university are understandable, but again, is this kind of crap really worth anyone's time? I would hope nobody cares about this.

Rubio also said that "if it weren't for Trump's $200 million inheritance, he'd be selling watches in Manhattan."

Well, that's just sad and vicious and comes across, to me at least, as totally phony. Granted, I'm a Trump supporter, but I'm being as objective as I can here. Who says that kind of thing during a presidential debate? I know Trump says some ridiculous stuff too, but it's Rubio himself who said "the time for games is over," "it's time to get serious," etc. Apparently not.

"The Rubio shriek brigade" - Ann Coulter

Does the RNC not understand that these choreographed applause lines and stacked audiences don't fool anyone anymore? The fourth wall has already been broken on that.

I found myself agreeing with Chris Matthews of all people when he said the back-and-fourths were "embarrassing in any presidential election." The endless crosstalk is getting ridiculous, and at this point everyone is guilty of it, including Trump. The difference is that when a New Yorker does it, it feels perfectly natural. When Marco did it, he looked like an annoying little shit.

Unsurprisingly, Ted Cruz's attacks on Trump were a little more substantive, but equally petty and misleading. Yes, Trump donated to various Democrats, as he did Republicans, when he was a businessman. Been over this so many times in previous debates. Is it possible to just move on and talk about other things?

"Trump may appoint liberal judges." OK, based on what? And don't say his record of donations to Democrats. Those were lobbying efforts to "get along with everyone." Trump has been a registered Republican since the 80's. Me, personally, I just don't buy it because there's no real evidence of it.

Ted Cruz's attacks on Trump for not being electable are kind of like throwing stones out of a glass house. First, Trump's general election poll numbers are improving quickly, and he will bring other states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania into play. Second, Ted Cruz's general election numbers aren't much better than Trump's! If that's the new criteria, we'd better just nominate the RINOs Marco or John Kasich. I thought the purpose of the Ted Cruz campaign was to STOP doing that.

Ugh, and finally, the taxes. They should have just moved to another topic after Trump said he would release them after being audited. That's a fair promise. I'm repeating myself now, but dwelling on this is just a waste of precious time that could be spent on policy arguments. That would be a welcome change of pace. 

As for "who won," I don't think anybody won. It was the worst presidential debate I've ever seen. Who's to blame for it? All three of them are to blame, but Rubio more than anyone. "Miami Sleaze" should be his nickname. Trump needs to learn how properly deal with attacks as a front runner does; simply move in the same direction of the attack, remain cordial (hard to do, but hey), factually rebut when needed and direct attacks to the Democratic frontrunner. Ted Cruz just sucked. Get some better talking points. 

CDU Candidates in March state elections break from Merkel

There's a big election coming up in March for Germany, where two of the biggest states, Rheinland-Palatinate and Baden-Wuerttemberg will go to the polls and elect a state parliament. In both of those states, Merkel's center-right CDU party has lost considerable support to far-right AfD, which now has somewhere between 9 and 12% of the vote, well above the 5% threshold required to get seats in the regional governments.

The CDU's candidates in Rheinland-Palatinate and Baden-Wuerttemberg, Julia Kloeckner and Guido Wolf, have broken away from Merkel and are calling for the federal government to set daily "refugee" quotas. This is an especially big deal because Kloeckner is understood to be Merkel's 'heir apparent,' and party members are increasingly turning to Kloeckner. Not only that, Guido Wolf is neck-and-neck with the Green Party candidate in Baden-Wuerttemberg, thanks in no small part to the rise of AfD. A Green Party victory in the Black Forest state would be a gigantic loss to the CDU, and Merkel will be to blame.

Merkel, unsurprisingly, is holding the line on her "refugee" policy.

"I'm truly working to reduce the number of refugees," the childless chancellor chided on Monday in the town of Landau. "Some people always think I don't even want that. I do."

Well, sorry Merkel, but actions are louder than words. With Merkel continually holding down her more common-sense oriented candidates in Rhineland and Baden-Wuerttemberg, the CDU is headed for a big fat loss in March.

ALERT: Macedonia "temporarily" shutting off border to Afghans

Back in November, Macedonia began restricting 'migrant' entry through its borders to just Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans. Reports from the Macedonian border on Monday, however, indicate that Macedonian police are now demanding "proper travel documents" from Afghan nationals. Nobody travelling on the Balkan route has proper travel documents. So, in effect, no Afghans are getting through.

This has left some 1,000 Afghans stranded, and Greek authorities have been busing them back to Athens.

Whether this move is temporary remains to be seen. This move is probably linked to Austria now allowing only some 3,000 "migrants" to travel through the country per day. Latest reports from Greece indicate that "migrant" arrivals on the Balkan Route have picked up to 4,000 per day, and those numbers are expected to be even higher as the water warms up in the Mediterranean. This move could be Macedonia's way of complying with Austria's new rules. After all, if Austria starts rejecting people at the Spielfeld crossing, those same people may end up being dumped on Macedonia, which is something the Macedonian authorities do not want at all.

There are now 10,000 "migrants" stranded in Greece. Please stay tuned, will continue to update.

German Interior Minister Panicking

German Interior Minister Thomas de Maziere has lost his temper and is panicking. Germany has lost another ally in its "experiment" with migration when Austria introduced a cap on asylum seekers. Austria's asylum seeker cap is about one-third of the number it took in last year. In late December, Sweden also more-or-less shut off its border to asylum seekers, leaving Germany pretty much alone to take in "refugees." 

De Maziere doesn't like that. In a "furious outburst," de Maziere said that "(Germany) will continue to fight for a European way out of the refugee crisis as long as it also promises to be successful in diminishing the number of refugees."

Any reasonable person can see there will be no 'European way' of diminishing the number of refugees. This "crisis," which I am beginning to think is in many ways manufactured, has been ongoing for eight months and Europe has done nothing to secure its border.

"However," de Maziere continued, "should some countries try to unilaterally shift the collective problem onto the back of Germany, it would be unacceptable and would not be without consequences from our side in the long term."

That sounds to me like an empty threat. First of all, it was, in fact, Germany that unilaterally shifted the entire "refugee" problem onto Europe to begin with! 

And second of all, Germany already is isolated in this. I believe de Maziere's threat was directed at Austria. Sanctioning and punishing Austria will only drive voters in the latter state to the Freedom Party, and it just might push Austria into the camp of Poland and Hungary. 

Germany is isolated, out of friends, and increasingly resented for its arrogance and its destructive policies that it is trying to force onto Europe. 

Let's Be Real about the 'UK-EU' deal

Well, David Cameron finally got his "deal" with Angela Merkel. There were some small changes, but most of it is 'window dressing.' Will this deal change the opinion of Britons, 54% of whom want to leave the EU? Honestly, I don't know. Cameron's deal doesn't have to sway many for it to keep Britain in. The deal had four tenants, only two of which, in my opinion, are of any substance whatsoever.

1) The EU now officially recognizes the Pound as a currency of the EU. This is little more than slight of hand, and has been unofficially recognized by the EU for quite some time.

2) UK industry cannot be 'discriminated against,' particularly the financial sector. For example, financial firms in London will be able to trade in Euros. Actually, it was already this way, so this is just another item that went from de facto to de jure.

3) Fewer benefits for EU 'citizens' who move to Britain. Those who move to Britain from other countries in the EU will now have to wait four years to get any benefits. This should put an end to those who came to Britain to take advantage of the National Healthcare Services for just a few months. Cameron also secured a deal where child benefits will be reduced for those who are sending their money to children in other EU countries.

This is a some what substantive change, although I believe the biggest foreign welfare abusers in the UK come from outside of the EU.

4) No more "ever closer union." This is also somewhat substantial. The goal of an 'ever-closer union' is written into the EU Constitution. Ever-closer union is understood to mean that the goal of the EU is to merge the states politically, to make some kind of 'EU superstate.'

Britain has already had a somewhat special role in the EU, and it was already somewhat understood that Britain was not part of an 'ever closer union.' (This is why British MEP's are often shut out of decision making in the EU Parliament.)

Still, an official declaration that the UK is not to be a part of 'ever closer union' could be reassuring to many.

What's missing from this bill? First and foremost, border control and free movement of people. Anyone with an EU passport still has the right to come to Britain freely, work in Britain freely, and live in Britain freely. That's going to be a big problem in the coming years, because all these 'migrants' coming from middle eastern countries can (and will) come straight to Britain as soon as they get EU passports. The biggest gripe of Britons has been migration, and I don't see this deal doing terribly much about it.