Saturday, March 5, 2016

Autopsy of Trump's victory in Kentucky

Here are observations from Trump's solid victory in Kentucky: 

 1) if you layover a map of Virginia, Trump takes a wide swath of the most 'Southern' counties in Kentucky.
2) Trump dominates in Coal Country. No surprise there.
3) Cruz does well in the more Bible-Belty west near southern Illinois.
4) Cruz takes Lexington and suburban Cincinnati.
5) Surprisingly, Trump wins in Louisville and is strong in many counties along the Ohio river. 
6) Trump does very well in rural areas.
In Ohio, Trump and Kasich will fight for Toledo to Cleveland. Trump will really pick up votes around Youngstown and Akron in the east. The 'rust belt.' Hardly anyone there will vote for Cruz. Trump will rule rural Ohio.
Cruz will do well in Columbus, maybe Cincinnati but that's about it. This thing is going to get a lot harder for Ted Cruz. 

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